Category Archives: Political Risk

China’s Trajectory: Looking at the Possible Futures for the Middle Kingdom











First up, Gordon Chang, who has been writing about this for years – is he right now?:

China’s Third Era: The End of Reform, Growth, and Stability


Next, the other side of the argument: Francesco Sisci, the dean of Beijing’s foreign press corps, in three articles, the last of which appears as an appendix in the second link. Of particular interest to me is this last and oldest one (from 2007), reprinted from the Italian La Stampa (the translation and editing could use some work), regarding democracy in China…

Why China won’t fall apart

What China Sees in Hong Kong (includes as an appendix “China’s Inevitables: Death, Taxes—and Democracy”)





All are good, interesting reads. You will not rue the time you spend to further educate yourself about China.

2013_smog beijing_China-1


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Filed under China, Developing Nations, Economy, History, Political Risk, Trade

Turkey – What is Going on?!?

stompingOver the top police violence, or what? Why would this be happening in (supposedly) the model nation for the region?


Brief summary here (English translation from Germany’s Der Spiegel).

Context: Stratfor’s analysis here.

Opinion piece about Erdoğan (the Turkish prime minister) here (from an American journalist living in Istanbul).

Outstanding, deep economic background here (Asia Times). Well worth the time to read.

Excellent continuing series of news dispatches here (London’s Telegraph newspaper).


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Filed under Developing Nations, Economy, Europe, Political Risk

“When doing business in China, trust no one.”

Interesting set of links from a law blog about doing business in China… This one reminded me of the best book on the subject, Mr. China

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Filed under China, Developing Nations, Economy, Finance, Political Risk

China – Nice Overview

While I don’t agree with all of this site’s points, it definitely is eye-candy and a handy reference for someone wanting to get up to speed on China. Reuters did an unusually good job with this one…


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2013/03/05 · 08:42

USA – Financial problems of and investment advice

Two seemingly unrelated articles here, here and here.  Note, for many, lowering exposure to the US markets (stock and bond) is partially driven by concern about government finances. The California post by professor Mead is indicative of problems in the pipeline that may become evident on the federal level in the near future…

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Filed under Economy, Finance, Political Risk, Uncategorized

Israel – Background and Game Changing New Developments

Excellent background here in Stratfor report “The Geopolitics of Israel: Biblical and Modern.

Which you should follow up with this article from Wharton on an energy-based national game changer.

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Filed under Developing Nations, Economy, Political Risk, Technology, Trade

“Fiscal Crises and Imperial Collapses: Historical Perspective on Current Predicaments”

Outstanding presentation by Niall Ferguson on the crisis and collapse of political and economic systems. Although the lecture occurred 2 years ago, it is even more relevant today.  The Ad Orientem blog brought this to my attention, and helpfully says:

“This is an outstanding lecture on how countries get too heavily indebted and then suffer a ruinous financial collapse.  If you want to understand what is going on now in Europe, and what is almost certainly going to happen here in the coming years, watch this lecture.  I suggest starting at around the 8 minute mark to skip the introductions.”

I hope that you find it interesting, as it is a very important hypothesis.

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Filed under Economy, Political Risk