Category Archives: Trade

China’s Trajectory: Looking at the Possible Futures for the Middle Kingdom

Forbiddencity

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

First up, Gordon Chang, who has been writing about this for years – is he right now?:

China’s Third Era: The End of Reform, Growth, and Stability

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Next, the other side of the argument: Francesco Sisci, the dean of Beijing’s foreign press corps, in three articles, the last of which appears as an appendix in the second link. Of particular interest to me is this last and oldest one (from 2007), reprinted from the Italian La Stampa (the translation and editing could use some work), regarding democracy in China…

Why China won’t fall apart

What China Sees in Hong Kong (includes as an appendix “China’s Inevitables: Death, Taxes—and Democracy”)

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All are good, interesting reads. You will not rue the time you spend to further educate yourself about China.

2013_smog beijing_China-1

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Filed under China, Developing Nations, Economy, History, Political Risk, Trade

Spengler on the Global Failure of Keynesianism and Global Economic Stagnation…

You may not agree with him, but he is always fascinating…

spengler

Spengler demolishing Keynesianism

Spengler holding forth on stagnation

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Filed under Economy, Finance, Trade

China – Nice Overview

While I don’t agree with all of this site’s points, it definitely is eye-candy and a handy reference for someone wanting to get up to speed on China. Reuters did an unusually good job with this one…

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2013/03/05 · 08:42

Excellent presentation about Big Data…

Big Data and advanced analytics from McKinsey Chief Marketing & Sales Officer Forum

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Filed under Economy, Technology, Trade

Israel – Background and Game Changing New Developments

Excellent background here in Stratfor report “The Geopolitics of Israel: Biblical and Modern.

Which you should follow up with this article from Wharton on an energy-based national game changer.

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Filed under Developing Nations, Economy, Political Risk, Technology, Trade

“Declining European Demand for Asia’s Exports Compounds Sputtering Growth”

The European debt crisis is contributing to economic slowdowns across Asian countries in 2012. Both developed and developing economies, including China, Japan, India and South Korea, are experiencing drops in demand for their products. Compounding problems, European banks are pulling back on loans to Asian economies, hindering their access to credit.   There are problems for countries that are dependent on export-led growth when global demand slows. It is a case study in why Chinese leaders need to change the composition of national GDP away from exports (foreign demand) and more towards household consumption and business investment (domestic demand).

Video here.

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Filed under China, Developing Nations, Economy, Europe, India, Trade

International Trade and the Cost of Transport

In reading a very interesting posting from Stratfor about “Australia’s Strategy” (I particularly liked the metaphore “Think of Australia as a creature whose primary circulatory system is outside of its body”), I began to thing about the captioned and how it might be of interest. There are different costs to transportation, as you can see from the below (I have left air freight off because it is horrendously expensive compared to marine, rail or truck):

(taken from here)

Another way to look at this – Cargo Capacities and Energy Efficiency:

(taken from: A Modal Comparison of Domestic Freight Transportation Effects on the General Public)

Or, Equivalent Units & Carbon Footprint:

In fact, according to another Stratfor monograph, “but in the petroleum age in the United States, the cost of transport via water is roughly 10 to 30 times cheaper than overland.”

So, for sourcing, logistics and supply chains, this cost is not inconsiderable. This brings me to this remarkable presentation on additional transportation costs by Stephen M. Carmel, Senior Vice President of Maersk Line, given August 3rd, 2011 at the Commander Second Fleet Intelligence Symposium. It involves costs associated with Pirates vs. the governments of the USA and US states (mainly California, my former home). An opinion piece on the same can be found from the always intriguing Belmont Club – but Mr. Fernandez brings us to pirates in suits: congress-critters, World Bank, the UN, lawyers, lobbyist groups and influence peddlers. You may not agree with him, but you have got to love his Animal House reference…

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